Climate sensitivity in the northern high latitudes using the Brazilian Earth System Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53660/CONJ-260-107Palavras-chave:
Climate change, Polar Amplification, Climate Models, Future Scenarios, CMIPResumo
An expressive number of scientific publications including the recent IPCC-AR6 report have warned about the effects of the ongoing and the projected climate change in the northern high latitudes as response to CO2 forcing. Here we investigate the response of the Arctic region to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration using the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) and other three state-of-the-art Global Climate Model from the CMIP5 project. We evaluated the Arctic climate sensitivity through the Polar amplification using two numerical experiments: (i) piControl numerical experiment and (ii) abrupt 4xCO2. Our results showed that the northern high latitudes are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the world, with strongest warming occurring in winter (DJF) and autumn (SON). The Arctic climate sensitivity is linked to changes in sea ice extent and sea ice thickness. Considering this scenario, it is expected that the Arctic will become ice-free in summer time and covered only by first-year-sea ice in the remaining months. We suggest that the projected sea ice albedo feedback will reinforce the Arctic warming with lack of understanding effects beyond the Arctic region.
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